The US central financial institution’s Federal Open Market Committee will hold its benchmark charge in a spread of 5.25% to five.5%, a peak reached a yr in the past, on the conclusion of its two-day coverage assembly Wednesday, in accordance with economists surveyed by Bloomberg Information. The choice might be introduced by way of a post-meeting assertion at 2 p.m. in Washington. Fed Chair Jerome Powell will maintain a press convention half-hour later.
Policymakers are prone to acknowledge that inflation has made progress towards their 2% aim — a prerequisite for charge cuts — following tame readings on shopper costs for the month of June. With unemployment additionally edging greater, officers will in all probability point out it’s applicable for coverage to turn out to be much less tight quickly.
Supply: Bloomberg
Financial Calendar
Supply: Investing.com
S&P 500
Prior Session was Cycle Day 3: Optimistic Three-Day Cycle as worth fulfilled upside goal zone (5525 – 5530) as outlined in prior DTS Briefing 7.30.24. Lengthy Liquidation accelerated as soon as the Line-in-Sand (5500) broke with nowhere to cover for the bulls. Remaining flush and reversal unfolded from 5445 CD1 Excessive Violation Stage. Sharp rally again to 3 Day Central Pivot Zone (5485 – 5490) was ultimate nail within the coffin for shorts.
Loopy because the RTH Session was, Mr. Softie earnings submit shut drove worth again right down to 5433 and at time of this writing (8 pm et) worth has rallied again to 5480. Welcome to the World of Futures Buying and selling. Vary was 94 handles on 1.983M contracts exchanged.
…Transition from Cycle Day 3 to Cycle Day 1
This leads us into Cycle Day 1: As we speak begins a brand new cycle with the CD1 Common Decline having been properly exceeded. Foremost Occasion for as we speak is in fact FED Coverage Assertion and Presser. (see above for notes). Multi-Day Composite Vary between 5430 – 5530 marks the present “sandbox” (playground) with elevated volatility expected to continue. There are multiple levels (too numerous to list them all) that may elicit a tradeable “response”, so we will defer to Mr. Market to show us the way forward. YOU KNOW THE DRILL!
Our discipline of maintaining positioning that is aligned with market forces continues to serve us well, so stay the course.
As such, scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
Bull Scenario: Price sustains a bid above 5470, initially targets 5490 – 5500 zone.
Bear Scenario: Price sustains an offer below 5470, initially targets 5450 – 5445 zone.
PVA High Edge = 5490 PVA Low Edge = 5441 Prior POC = 5470
*****The 3 Day Cycle has a 90% probability of fulfilling Positive Cycle Statistics covering 12 years of recorded tracking history.
ES Chart
Nasdaq 100 (NQ)
Prior Session was Cycle Day 3: Positive Three-Day Cycle as price fulfilled upside target zone (19295 – 19360) as outlined in prior DTS Briefing 7.30.24. Long Liquidation accelerated once the Line-in-Sand (19210) broke with nowhere to hide for the bulls. Final flush and reversal unfolded from 18740 Extreme Violation Level.
Crazy as the RTH Session was, Mr. Softie earnings post close drove price back down to 18740 and at time of this writing (8 pm et) price has rallied back to 19075. Welcome to the World of Futures Trading. Range was 594 handles on 731k contracts exchanged.
…Transition from Cycle Day 3 to Cycle Day 1
This leads us into Cycle Day 1: Today begins a new cycle with the CD1 Average Decline having been well exceeded. Main Event for today is of course FED Policy Statement and Presser. (see above for notes). Multi-Day Composite Range between 18750 – 19395 marks the current “sandbox” (playground) with elevated volatility expected to continue. There are multiple levels (too numerous to list them all) that may elicit a tradeable “response”, so we will defer to Mr. Market to show us the way forward. YOU KNOW THE DRILL!
Our discipline of maintaining positioning that is aligned with market forces continues to serve us well, so stay the course.
As such, scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
Bull Scenario: Price sustains a bid above 18940, initially targets 19130 – 19175 zone.
Bear Scenario: Price sustains an offer below 18940, initially targets 18805 – 18750 zone.
PVA High Edge = 19134 PVA Low Edge = 18736 Prior POC = 18938
NQ Chart
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
Good Trading…David
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –BR
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS
IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.
Disclaimer: Futures, Options, and Currency trading all have large potential rewards, but they also have large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in these markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose.
This website is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures, options, or currencies. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN
