Markets (High Tales)
It’s an enormous check this week to see what holds probably the most sway on the markets. Is it the Fed or AI? The Federal Reserve’s June choices arrives, together with its up to date projections for the trail of rates of interest, inflation and financial progress.
The Fed assertion and Chairman Jerome Powell’s press convention are due on Wednesday. With the market pricing in a close to certainty of no transfer on charges, the dot plot would be the important focus coming off the sturdy Could jobs figures. The markets at the moment are pricing in just one quarter-point lower in 2024, with the percentages of a September quarter-point lower falling to 50/50.
Earlier than the bell on Wednesday, the market will get the Could CPI figures. Economists forecast a 0.3% month-over-month improve within the core inflation fee and a drop within the annual fee to +3.5% from +3.6%. A considerably hotter or cooler quantity may see some unstable repositioning, particularly in bonds, forward of the afternoon Fed launch.
Supply: investing.com
Financial Calendar
S&P 500
Prior Session was Cycle Day 2: Regular CD2 as worth declined testing and discovering responsive consumers from the 3 Day Central Pivot Zone (5338 – 5326), rally again as much as DTS Briefing 6.7.24 target zone (5380 – 5385), before settling back to 5353 to close the week’s trading activity. Range was 56 handles on 1.495M contracts exchanged.
…Transition from Cycle Day 2 to Cycle Day 3
This leads us into Cycle Day 3: BIG upcoming events for this week are the CPI and FOMC both on Wednesday. Market activity is expect to be in a “holding-pattern” as traders will be patient on committing to new positions ahead of these key releases. Current range is defined as 5330 – 5380 (50 handles). As always, you know the plan…Stay aligned with dominant intra-day forces.
As such, scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
Bull Scenario: Price sustains a bid above 5365, initially targets 5380 – 5385 zone.
Bear Scenario: Price sustains an offer below 5365, initially targets 5340 – 5335 zone.
PVA High Edge = 5371 PVA Low Edge = 5351 Prior POC = 5358
*****The 3 Day Cycle has a 91.67% probability of fulfilling Positive Cycle Statistics covering 12 years of recorded tracking history.
Range Projections (ES) June 2024 (M)
Nasdaq 100 (NQ)
Prior Session was Cycle Day 2: Normal CD2 as price declined testing and finding responsive buyers from the 19017 – 19003 target zone and then rallied to our upper 19140 target as outlined in prior DTS Briefing 6.7.24. Range was 215 handles on 603k contracts exchanged.
…Transition from Cycle Day 2 to Cycle Day 3
This leads us into Cycle Day 3: BIG upcoming events for this week are the CPI and FOMC both on Wednesday. Market activity is expect to be in a “holding-pattern” as traders will be patient on committing to new positions ahead of these key releases. Current range is defined as 18940 – 19155. As always, you know the plan…Stay aligned with dominant intra-day forces.
As such, scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
.Bull Scenario: Price sustains a bid above 19067, initially targets 19140– 19155 zone.
Bear Scenario: Price sustains an offer below 19067, initially targets 19000 – 18970 zone.
PVA High Edge = 19091 PVA Low Edge = 19011 Prior POC = 19036
Range Projections (NQ) June 2024 (M)
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
Good Trading…David
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –BR
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS
IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.
Disclaimer: Futures, Options, and Currency trading all have large potential rewards, but they also have large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in these markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose.
This website is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures, options, or currencies. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN
